Is the Sealy Cup Locked Up? Almost, But Not Quite

Sass will take a 19 point lead over RowanB into the final event. While that is not an insurmountable lead, Sass is pretty close to having locked up the season championship. Third and fourth place Harv29 and Bigfus are 30 and 31 points back, meaning that RowanB is the only other player who has a realistic chance to overtake Sass and win this year's Sealy Cup.

A number of things would have to go right for RowanB for this to happen, starting with a field of at least eight players for the Main Event. A field of seven would yield a maximum of 18 points to the winner (7 for outlasting six opponents, 5 bonus points for first place, and 6 "kills" for eliminating every player), which would leave RowanB just short even if he eliminated every player in the field while Sass finished in last place.

RowanB's chances improve as the field size grows. For example, consider this year's Las Vegas MPT, where Sass finished in sixth place out of a sixteen player field, but earned only 11 points while the winner, trojanrabbit, earned 30 points (16 for outlasting fifteen opponents, 7 bonus points for first, and 7 kills). The winner of that event at the Rio picked up 19 points on Sass, despite her respectable finish. If the "December Dozen" becomes a reality and twelve players start this year's Main Event, then there would be a maximum of 30 points available to the winner of that event, if that person can eliminate every opponent. An early exit by Sass, combined win and a lot of "kills" by RowanB could tighten up the Player of the Year race considerably.

On the other hand, the possibility a victory for RowanB becomes more remote when you consider a few other factors. Sass has only six kills in 18 career events, which opens the door slightly for a comeback for the season title, but RowanB has never eliminated more than three players in a single event. If he ties he personal best for kills, then RowanB would need to win the tournament and for Sass to finish in last place in a 10 player field, and even doing that would just earn him a tie in the season standings. However, Sass has not finished an event in last place since September 2008 and has not been more than two spots outside of the money since October 2008. She has also earned ten or more points in five consecutive tournaments, no fewer than six points in each of her last eight events, and fewer than six points only five times in 18 career tournaments. During that same time, RowanB has earned more than ten points in only four events, and never more than 14 points, while winning only one out of twenty career tournaments.

All that adds up to a slim chance for RowanB and virtually no chance for anyone else to unseat Sass as this season's Player of the Year.